<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u0130ktidar, a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda mitinglerle yine boy g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Erdo\u011fan, hemen her g\u00fcn, art\u0131k hepimize g\u0131na getiren \u00fcslubuyla sahadaki yerini ald\u0131. Pek tabii ki medya yine \u00fcst\u00fcne d\u00fc\u015fen g\u00f6revi eksiksiz yerine getiriyor. Neredeyse g\u00fcn boyu, her nerede konu\u015fuyor olurlarsa olsunlar, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 ve Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 veriyor. \u201cPrime time\u201d olarak nitelenen ak\u015fam ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131nda da AKP\u2019nin s\u00f6zc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne soyunmu\u015f yorumcular ekrana \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak g\u00f6rev tamamlanm\u0131\u015f oluyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ktidar\u0131n \u00f6zellikle 2010\u2019dan itibaren bu y\u00f6ntemi s\u00fcrekli kullan\u0131yor olmas\u0131 \u201cNe se\u00e7imi?\u201d dedirtse de aksini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrecek hayli veri var \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde.
\n\u00d6zellikle dikkat \u00e7ekenleri s\u0131ralayal\u0131m:<\/p>\n

1- Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n, Son D\u00f6nemde yYapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131klamalar<\/strong><\/p>\n

* D\u0131\u015f siyasette uzla\u015fmaz bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc \u00e7izmesi. (Dik duru\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc)
\n* Muhalefete kar\u015f\u0131 daha sald\u0131rgan bir \u00fcsluba ge\u00e7mesi. Muhalefete kar\u015f\u0131 sertli\u011fi genel olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n dozu se\u00e7im d\u00f6nemlerinde y\u00fckseltir.
\n* Kamuoyunun tepki koydu\u011fu konularda uzla\u015fmac\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc \u00e7izmesi.
\n* Parti i\u00e7indeki dinamizmi canland\u0131rma \u00e7abalar\u0131.
\n* K\u00fcrtlere tekrar g\u00f6z k\u0131rpmas\u0131.<\/p>\n

2- Yanda\u015f Gazetecilerin Nab\u0131z Yoklamalar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u00f6\u015fesini, kalemini AKP\u2019nin ali menfaatlerine adam\u0131\u015f kimi yazarlar (!) son d\u00f6nemde erken se\u00e7im ihtimalini dillendirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131lar. Bunun yan\u0131nda muhalif gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnen ama asl\u0131nda AKP\u2019nin ama\u00e7lar\u0131na hizmet eden gazete ve yorumculardan da benzer yaz\u0131 ve a\u00e7\u0131klamalar geldi. Son olarak da ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcn, AKP\u2019ye yak\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla bilinen bir anket \u015firketi de erken se\u00e7im ihtimalinin hi\u00e7 de g\u00f6zard\u0131 edilmemesi gerekti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n

3- Ekonomik G\u00f6stergeler<\/strong><\/p>\n

AB ile ya\u015fanan s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeler, \u00f6zellikle Almanya ile gerilen ipler, OHAL kaynakl\u0131 g\u00fcvensizlik, d\u00f6vizin s\u00fcrekli olarak y\u00fckselmesine sebep oluyor. Buna Suriye konusunda ABD ile; Katar konusunda da K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleriyle ya\u015fanan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar da eklenince ekonomik darbo\u011faz ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz gibi duruyor. Turizmdeki kan kayb\u0131 devam ediyor. Doluluk oranlar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyat politikas\u0131yla telafi edilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lsa da, bu tedbirler gelirdeki kayb\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamaya yetmedi. \u0130\u015fsizlik ve enflasyon verilerinde de t\u00fcm manip\u00fclasyonlara ra\u011fmen saklanamayan art\u0131\u015flar s\u00f6zkonusu.<\/p>\n

4- Yeni Parti\u2019nin Estirdi\u011fi R\u00fczgar<\/strong><\/p>\n

En g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etken de bu. \u201cNeden en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etken?\u201d diye soracak olursan\u0131z; AKP, iktidara geldi\u011fi g\u00fcnden beri yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcm hatalara ra\u011fmen, kuvvetli bir alternatifin siyaset sahnesinde olmamas\u0131n\u0131n avantaj\u0131yla girdi\u011fi t\u00fcm se\u00e7imleri kazanmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131. Ama Ak\u015fener ve \u00d6zda\u011f \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde in\u015fas\u0131 s\u00fcren yeni parti, daha kurulmadan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir alternatif olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hissettiriyor. Anket \u015firketlerinin ortaya koydu\u011fu veriler, halk\u0131n bu parti konusundaki beklentilerinin hayli y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Yukar\u0131da sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131m maddeleri g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda AKP\u2019nin bask\u0131n bir se\u00e7imi devreye sokmas\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz olmayacakt\u0131r. Bask\u0131n se\u00e7im ve getirdi\u011fi atmosfer hen\u00fcz etkisi tam manas\u0131yla hissedilmeyen ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n, d\u0131\u015f siyasetteki belirsizli\u011fin, parti i\u00e7i \u00e7eki\u015fmelerin \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6rtecektir. Bunun yan\u0131nda AKP bask\u0131n se\u00e7ime gitmesi halinde, iddial\u0131 bir rakip olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yeni partiyi de se\u00e7ime haz\u0131rlanma olana\u011f\u0131ndan mahrum b\u0131rakmak isteyecektir.<\/p>\n

Referandum sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda AKP\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck ilde de %50\u2019yi ge\u00e7emedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bunun yan\u0131nda yerel y\u00f6netimlerde yapt\u0131klar\u0131 hatalar ve \u201cmetal yorgunluklar\u0131\u201d<\/em><\/strong> eklenen Topba\u015f ve G\u00f6k\u00e7ek fakt\u00f6rleri eklendi\u011finde yerel se\u00e7imlerin AKP i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 ge\u00e7ece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebiliriz. Hal b\u00f6yleyken \u00fc\u00e7\u00fc bir arada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen se\u00e7im; AKP i\u00e7in ciddi bir yenilgi ihtimalini bar\u0131nd\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bu denli ciddi riskler mevcutken Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n s\u0131rf \u201cErken se\u00e7im yok\u201d <\/em><\/strong>s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc yutmamak ad\u0131na 2019\u2019u bekleyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek hayalcilik olur.<\/p>\n

Muhalefet hesab\u0131n\u0131 kitab\u0131n\u0131 buna g\u00f6re yapmal\u0131d\u0131r. Ak\u015fener\/\u00d6zda\u011f ikilisi s\u00fcratle hareket etmelidir. Aksi takdirde, bask\u0131n se\u00e7imle yaln\u0131z kaybeden onlar de\u011fil, T\u00fcrkiye olacakt\u0131r. Ne sizin, ne de \u00fclkenin art\u0131k kaybedecek tek bir g\u00fcn\u00fc yoktur…<\/p>\n

Mahir \u015eanl\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  \u0130ktidar, a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda mitinglerle yine boy g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1625,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[12],"tags":[232,93,128,276,97,218,132,124,274,101,134,118,304,85,91,312,103,308,298,234,248,99,270,87,300,272,65,306,112,302,310],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mahirsanli.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1624"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mahirsanli.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mahirsanli.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mahirsanli.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mahirsanli.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1624"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.mahirsanli.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1624\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mahirsanli.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mahirsanli.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mahirsanli.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mahirsanli.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}